Analysis: Special Election to Replace Massachusetts Democratic Senator John Kerry “Expected to Break the Bank”

by Colonel on January 14, 2013

From Politico’s Tarini Parti:

“The special election to fill the seat of Democratic Sen. John Kerry — should he be confirmed as secretary of state — is expected to break the bank, especially because special-interest groups, super PACs and secretive nonprofits won’t hesitate to spend millions of dollars in the Bay State.”

By political nature, Special Elections generate more attention, and spending:

“Every special election gets more national attention than even an open seat in a normal election,” said Bob Biersack, senior fellow at the Center for Responsive Politics. “They generate a lot of money. The time frame is compressed, but because of the nationalization of the race, it can generate as much as a normally competitive race in 2012.”

Strong Candidates in a Special Election are likely to further increase the draw for donations and spending:

“Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) has announced his intention to run, and it is widely believed former GOP Sen. Scott Brown, who lost in November to Sen. Elizabeth Warren, will make another run for the seat.

Markey and Brown won’t have any problems raising cash.

Brown won a special election in 2010, defeating Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley for the Senate seat. Both candidates spent a combined $20 million on the race in a short period of time.”

And, despite the politicians’ hypocritical “oath” to refuse outside spending, Super PACs still spent an astronomical amount in the 2012 race:

“Post-election reports filed by Brown and Warren’s campaigns show that more than $80 million was spent in total by both campaigns on the 2012 race. Because they signed the People’s Pledge, no outside groups were supposed to spend money on the race, but groups such as Crossroads GPS, American Bridge 21st Century, the League of Conservation Voters and pro-Brown super PAC America 360 got involved.”

This Election has carries national significance:

“Both parties see this special election as one that can develop momentum for 2014 — an attractive reason for outside groups to jump in, Biersack said.

Majority PAC, credited with big wins for Democrats in the Senate in 2012, has started reaching out to donors to raise money specifically for the special election. The group plans to work with state and national allies, including the anti-Brown 2012 super PAC, Rethink Brown, for a unified effort. Majority PAC will be running ads during the primaries, but it will focus on boosting Democrats in general instead of supporting a particular candidate over.

” — Copyright 2013 Politico LLC

Setting the tone for the 2014 Election.

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