Nate Silver: GOP Establishment vs. Tea Party — Could Karl Rove’s New Strategy Backfire?

by Colonel on February 11, 2013

“The strategist Karl Rove and his allies last week announced the formation of Conservative Victory Project, a new “super PAC” designed to lend support to what they see as more electable candidates in Republican Senate primaries.

Copyright 2013 The New York Times Company

These issues aside, the overall message from the data should be reasonably clear. The establishment candidates substantially outraised the insurgents, by an average of $4.3 million to $1.2 million based on the last Federal Election Commission reports that the candidates filed in advance of the primary.

And yet, the insurgent candidates won 11 of 23 races, or nearly half the contests.

Does that mean there is literally no benefit to having more money in a Republican primary? Not exactly; as the chart below suggests, there is a modest but positive correlation:

Copyright 2013 The New York Times Company

However, the relationship is much weaker than it is in general elections for the Senate[:]

Copyright 2013 The New York Times Company

” — Nate Silver, Copyright 2013 The New York Times Company

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